Estimation of fractal dimension for a class of Non-Gaussian stationary processes and fields

We present the asymptotic distribution theory for a class of increment-based estimators of the fractal dimension of a random field of the form g{X(t)}, where g:R\to R is an unknown smooth function and X(t) is a real-valued stationary Gaussian field on R^d, d=1 or 2, whose covariance function obeys a power law at the origin. The relevant theoretical framework here is ``fixed domain'' (or ``infill'') asymptotics. Surprisingly, the limit theory in this non-Gaussian case is somewhat richer than in the Gaussian case (the latter is recovered when g is affine), in part because estimators of the type considered may have an asymptotic variance which is random in the limit. Broadly, when g is smooth and nonaffine, three types of limit distributions can arise, types (i), (ii) and (iii), say. Each type can be represented as a random integral. More specifically, type (i) can be represented as the integral of a certain random function with respect to Lebesgue measure; type (ii) can be represented as the integral of a second random functio

‘Multi-directional management’: Exploring the challenges of performance in the World Class Programme environment

Driven by the ever-increasing intensity of Olympic competition and the ‘no compromise – no stone unturned’ requirements frequently addressed by HM Government and its main agency, UK Sport, a change in culture across Olympic team landscapes is a common occurrence. With a focus on process, this paper presents reflections from eight current or recently serving UK Olympic sport Performance Directors on their experiences of creating and disseminating their vision for their sport, a vital initial activity of the change initiative. To facilitate a broad overview of this construct, reflections are structured around the vision’s characteristics and foundations, how it is delivered to key stakeholder groups, how it is influenced by these groups, the qualities required to ensure its longevity and its limitations. Emerging from these perceptions, the creation and maintenance of a shared team vision was portrayed as a highly dynamic task requiring the active management of a number of key internal and external stakeholders. Furthermore, the application of ‘dark’ traits and context-specific expertise were considered critical attributes for the activity’s success. Finally, recent calls for research to elucidate the wider culture optimisation process are reinforced

“Fecal microbiome in epidemiologic studies” - Letter

We congratulate Sinha et al. on their recent report (1) comparing fecal sample collection methods for epidemiologic studies of the gut microbiome. These data contribute to the increasing body of literature describing robust methodological frameworks for specimen collection and processing (2, 3). However, their claim that fixation of stool using RNAlater® results in “considerable changes to the microbiome diversity” contrasts with previous findings (2, 3), including those from their earlier reports (4, 5). We have previously demonstrated that self-collected stool stabilized with RNAlater® or other fixatives yields high fidelity and reproducibility in compositional profiling of DNA and RNA from shotgun sequence data, compared to immediately-frozen specimens (3). Additionally, fixation offers several distinct advantages crucial for large-scale population-based studies: a straightforward self-collection procedure; sample stabilization without deep-freezing during shipping, receiving, and processing; and versatility for multiple molecular analyses. The authors’ finding that specimens preserved in RNAlater® had poor correlation with immediately frozen specimens (1) could be explained, for example, by improper fixation resulting from an excess of specimen relative to preservative volume (1–2 g:2.5 ml, compared to the manufacturer-recommended ratio of 1 g:5–10 ml; Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., Waltham, MA)

No Association Between Consumption of Sweetened Beverages and Risk of Later-Onset Crohn's Disease or Ulcerative Colitis

Background & Aims: Consumption of sweetened beverages has been associated with inflammation based on measurements of C-reactive protein and tumor necrosis factor, as well as immune-mediated disorders including rheumatoid arthritis. We investigated associations with Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 83,042 participants (age, 44–83 y) enrolled in the Cohort of Swedish Men or the Swedish Mammography Study. Dietary and lifestyle data were collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline in 1997. Diagnoses of CD and UC were ascertained from the Swedish Patient Register. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to calculate hazard ratios and 95% CIs. Results: Through December of 2014, we confirmed 143 incident cases of CD (incidence rate, 11 cases/100,000 person-years) and 349 incident cases of UC (incidence rate, 28 cases/100,000 person-years) over 1,264,345 person-years of follow-up evaluation. Consumption of sweetened beverages was not associated with increased risk of CD (Ptrend = .34) or UC (Ptrend = .40). Compared with participants who reported no consumption of sweetened beverages, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for 1 or more servings per day were 1.02 for CD (95% CI, 0.60–1.73) and 1.14 for UC (95% CI, 0.83–1.57). The association between consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and risk of CD or UC were not modified by age, sex (cohort), body mass index, or smoking (all Pinteraction ≥ .12). Conclusions: In analyses of data from 2 large prospective cohort studies from Sweden, we observed no evidence for associations between consumption of sweetened beverages and later risk of CD or UC

Experimental Markets for Product Concepts

Market prices are well known to efficiently collect and aggregate diverse information regarding the value of commodities and assets. The role of markets has been particularly suitable to pricing financial securities. This article provides an alternative application of the pricing mechanism to marketing research - using pseudo-securities markets to measure preferences over new product concepts. Surveys, focus groups, concept tests and conjoint studies are methods traditionally used to measure individual and aggregate preferences. Unfortunately, these methods can be biased, costly and time-consuming to conduct. The present research is motivated by the desire to efficiently measure preferences and more accurately predict new product success, based on the efficiency and incentive-compatibility of security trading markets. The article describes a novel market research method, pro-vides insight into why the method should work, and compares the results of several trading experiments against other methodologies such as concept testing and conjoint analysis

Breathing FIRE: How Stellar Feedback Drives Radial Migration, Rapid Size Fluctuations, and Population Gradients in Low-Mass Galaxies

We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies ($M_{\rm star}=2\times10^6-5\times10^{10}{\rm M_{\odot}}$) using the FIRE (Feedback in Realistic Environments) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate $\sim1{\rm\,kpc}$ within their first $100 {\rm\,Myr}$, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies' effective radii can fluctuate by factors of $>2$ over $\sim200 {\rm\,Myr}$, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in radius at fixed $M_{\rm star}.$ Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes---and even inverts---intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star-formation histories from stellar populations at $z=0$ can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at $M_{\rm star}\approx10^{7-9.6}{\rm M_{\odot}}$, the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in $\Lambda$CDM.Comment: Accepted to ApJ (820, 131) with minor revisions from v1. Figure 4 now includes dark matter. Main results in Figures 7 and 1

Association of aspirin use with mortality risk among older adult participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial

Importance: Aspirin use has been associated with reduced risk of cancer mortality, particularly of the colorectum. However, aspirin efficacy may be influenced by biological characteristics, such as obesity and age. With the increasing prevalence of obesity and conflicting data regarding the effect of aspirin in older adults, understanding the potential association of aspirin use with cancer mortality according to body mass index (BMI) and age is imperative. Objectives: To investigate the association of aspirin use with risk of all-cause, any cancer, gastrointestinal (GI) cancer, and colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality among older adults and to perform an exploratory analysis of the association of aspirin use with mortality stratified by BMI. Design, Setting, Participants: This cohort study evaluated aspirin use among participants aged 65 years and older in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial at baseline (November 8, 1993, to July 2, 2001) and follow-up (2006-2008). Analysis began in late 2018 and was completed in September 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause, any cancer, GI cancer, or CRC mortality. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were calculated using time-varying Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, adjusting for additional factors. Results: A total of 146 152 individuals (mean [SD] age at baseline, 66.3 [2.4] years; 74 742 [51.1%] women; 129 446 [88.6%] non-Hispanic white) were included in analysis. The median (interquartile range) follow-up time was 12.5 (8.7-16.4) years, encompassing 1 822 164 person-years. Compared with no use, aspirin use 1 to 3 times per month was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.88; P \u3c .001) and cancer mortality (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.81-0.94; P \u3c .001). Aspirin use 3 or more times per week was associated with decreased risk of mortality of all causes (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.83; P \u3c .001), any cancer (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81-0.88; P \u3c .001), GI cancer (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66-0.84; P \u3c .001), and CRC (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61-0.84; P \u3c .001). When stratified by BMI (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), aspirin use 3 or more times per week among individuals with BMI 20 to 24.9 was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.78-0.85; P \u3c .001) and any cancer mortality (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.79-0.82; P \u3c .001). Among individuals with BMI 25 to 29.9, aspirin use 3 or more times per week was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85; P \u3c .001), any cancer mortality (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.91; P \u3c .001), GI cancer mortality (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.86; P \u3c .001), and CRC mortality (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51-0.85; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, aspirin use 3 or more times per week was associated with a reduction in all-cause, cancer, GI cancer and CRC mortality in older adults

Assemblage structure: an overlooked component of human-mediated species movements among freshwater ecosystems

The spread and impact of alien species among freshwater ecosystems has increased with global trade and human movement; therefore, quantifying the role of anthropogenic and ecological factors that increase the risk of invasion is an important conservation goal. Two factors considered as null models when assessing the potential for invasion are colonization pressure (i.e., the number of species introduced) and propagule pressure [i.e., the number (propagule size), and frequency (propagule number), of individuals of each species introduced]. We translate the terminology of species abundance distributions to the invasion terminology of propagule size and colonization size (PS and CS, respectively). We conduct hypothesis testing to determine the underlying statistical species abundance distribution for zooplankton assemblages transported between freshwater ecosystems; and, on the basis of a lognormal distribution, construct four hypothetical assemblages spanning assemblage structure, rank-abundance gradient (e.g., even vs uneven), total abundance (of all species combined), and relative contribution of PS vs CS. For a given CS, many combinations of PS and total abundance can occur when transported assemblages conform to a lognormal species abundance distribution; therefore, for a given transportation event, many combinations of CS and PS are possible with potentially different ecological outcomes. An assemblage exhibiting high PS but low CS (species poor, but highly abundant) may overcome demographic barriers to establishment, but with lower certainty of amenable environmental conditions in the recipient region; whereas, the opposite extreme, high CS and low PS (species rich, but low abundance per species) may provide multiple opportunities for one of n arriving species to circumvent environmental barriers, albeit with lower potential to overcome demographic constraints. Species abundance distributions and the corresponding influence of CS and PS are some of many influential factors (e.g., demographic and genetic stochasticity, environmental variability, composition of recipient ecosystems) that will help refine an understanding of establishment risk following the human-mediated movement of species

Assessment of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms and sleep quality among women in the Nurses\u27 Health Study II

IMPORTANCE: Limited data exist on the association of gastroesophageal reflux (GER) symptoms with sleep quality. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively investigate the association between GER symptoms and sleep quality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective cohort study included data from the Nurses\u27 Health Study II of female nurses in the US. Participants self-reported the frequency and duration of GER symptoms beginning June 2005, with updates every 4 years through June 2015. Follow-up was completed June 2019, and data were analyzed from November 15, 2022, to June 4, 2023. EXPOSURES: Frequency and duration of GER symptoms. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Poor sleep quality was assessed in 2017 through a modified Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, which included difficulty in falling asleep, restlessness of sleep, daytime sleepiness, sleep disturbance, and sleep duration. Relative risk (RR) for poor sleep quality and individual components of poor sleep quality was estimated according to the frequency and duration of GER symptoms. RESULTS: Among 48 536 women (median age, 59 years [range, 48-69 years]), 7929 (16.3%) developed poor sleep quality during 4 years of follow-up. Compared with those with GER symptoms less than once a month, the multivariable RR for poor sleep quality among women with GER symptoms more than once a week was 1.53 (95% CI, 1.45-1.62). Women who had GER symptoms once or more a week for more than 7 years had an RR of 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.43) compared with women who had not had GER symptoms once or more a week. The frequency and duration of GER symptoms were significantly associated with each individual component of poor sleep quality; for example, the multivariable RRs for GER symptoms 2 or more times per week compared with no GER symptoms were 1.49 (95% CI, 1.39-1.58) for difficulty in falling asleep, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.39-1.56) for excessive daytime sleepiness, and 1.44 (95% CI, 1.36-1.53) for restlessness of sleep. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this prospective cohort study of female nurses in the Nurses\u27 Health Study II, the frequency and duration of GER symptoms were associated with subsequent risk of poor sleep quality. The findings suggest that effective treatment of GER disease may be important not only for improvement of symptoms but also for the reduction of comorbidities associated with poor sleep quality